2 00:00:06,397 --> 00:00:13,210 On the longer term, it's a bit more daunting. 3 00:00:13,210 --> 00:00:15,990 Longer term meaning now to the year 2100. 4 00:00:17,060 --> 00:00:20,290 Things change naturally in that amount of time. 5 00:00:20,290 --> 00:00:22,390 The fact that we have to come up with some 6 00:00:22,390 --> 00:00:26,410 new energy supply by the year 2100 doesn't sound all that frightening. 7 00:00:26,410 --> 00:00:29,730 It sounds like an interesting challenge. 8 00:00:29,730 --> 00:00:32,260 The problem is that if 9 00:00:32,260 --> 00:00:37,730 you use a scenario predictor 10 00:00:37,730 --> 00:00:42,410 like the Kaya identity module that you've played with, and ask how much 11 00:00:42,410 --> 00:00:47,730 carbon-free energy would it take by the year 2100 to continue 12 00:00:47,730 --> 00:00:52,840 growth as we have been growing and yet not melt down the climate, 13 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:57,260 it turns out that we have to come up with something like 20 terawatts of 14 00:00:57,260 --> 00:00:58,910 energy by the year 2100. 15 00:00:58,910 --> 00:01:04,540 For comparison, we are generating about 13 terawatts of energy today, 16 00:01:04,540 --> 00:01:07,760 not carbon free. This 20 terawatts has to be carbon free. 17 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,830 And it turns out that most of these things that make up wedges 18 00:01:11,830 --> 00:01:16,780 you couldn't possibly scale them up to come up with this much energy. 19 00:01:16,780 --> 00:01:20,550 If you were going to do it using nuclear power, 21 00:01:20,550 --> 00:01:22,400 for example, you'd have to build a 22 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:26,650 couple of power plants a week for the next 100 years. 23 00:01:26,650 --> 00:01:28,940 You would make thousands of nuclear power plants. 24 00:01:28,940 --> 00:01:30,890 You just can't scale it up. 25 00:01:30,890 --> 00:01:34,780 And so, looking for ideas that could scale up to this kind of carbon 26 00:01:34,780 --> 00:01:37,380 free energy is something of a challenge, 27 00:01:37,380 --> 00:01:40,190 but I've heard some really cool ideas discussed. 28 00:01:43,460 --> 00:01:48,300 One of them that I like is to put solar cells on the moon. 29 00:01:48,300 --> 00:01:51,740 You could also have solar cells in orbit around the Earth, 30 00:01:51,740 --> 00:01:54,810 but then you'd have to lift the solar cells out of Earth's gravity. 31 00:01:54,810 --> 00:01:57,200 Whereas, if you could manufacture them on the 32 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,280 moon you could make them out of lunar soil. 33 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,530 And so you wouldn't necessarily have to bring all the 34 00:02:01,530 --> 00:02:04,540 mass of those solar panels up to the moon. 35 00:02:04,540 --> 00:02:08,570 Of course, there's no clouds on the moon, there's no dust blowing around, 36 00:02:08,570 --> 00:02:12,010 so it would be a perfect environment for capturing sunlight. 37 00:02:12,010 --> 00:02:14,550 And the question is getting the energy back to earth. 38 00:02:14,550 --> 00:02:19,590 Which could be done, by using microwave radiation, 39 00:02:19,590 --> 00:02:21,140 beaming energy it back to Earth. 40 00:02:21,140 --> 00:02:23,480 It's not as inefficient as you might think. 41 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,490 Maybe half of the energy that gets sent here could be collected there. 42 00:02:27,490 --> 00:02:31,490 And this technology, it's claimed, could scale up to 43 00:02:31,490 --> 00:02:33,730 that amount of energy by the end of the century. 44 00:02:33,730 --> 00:02:37,880 It would be a big project. But, we have decades to do it. 45 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:42,360 Another cool idea I heard was high altitude windmills. 46 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:46,810 Windmills at the ground are limited in their power by the intensity of the wind. 47 00:02:46,810 --> 00:02:50,590 But if you get up into the jet stream, the wind is blowing much faster. 48 00:02:50,590 --> 00:02:53,730 If you get too high up, the air gets too thin and then it loses its ability 49 00:02:53,730 --> 00:02:55,470 to turn a propeller, so there's an 50 00:02:55,470 --> 00:02:59,220 optimum altitude where the power density is the highest. 51 00:02:59,220 --> 00:03:05,060 You could build windmills that would fly like like giant bat kites, 52 00:03:05,060 --> 00:03:07,730 tethered to the ground by a conducting cable, 53 00:03:07,730 --> 00:03:11,120 which would would harvest energy from the jet stream. 54 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,320 And this, it is claimed, could also scale up. 55 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:20,440 A third option is less less exotic, but solar thermal 56 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,380 energy is also said to be scalable. This is where you use 57 00:03:24,380 --> 00:03:30,060 some a focusing set of mirrors to concentrate 58 00:03:30,060 --> 00:03:35,310 the sunlight on a little pipe of water where you generate steam. 59 00:03:35,310 --> 00:03:38,560 And then you send the steam to a turbine to generate electricity, just 60 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,390 the same as you would if you had a coal power plant instead. 61 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,530 On the time frames of the next century 62 00:03:46,530 --> 00:03:49,500 we have a bold new challenge that we have 63 00:03:49,500 --> 00:03:50,460 to rise to.