2 00:00:10,919 --> 00:00:16,334 The human impact on the earth's carbon cycle is to dig up 3 00:00:16,334 --> 00:00:21,654 some of the carbon in the solid earth reservoir and put it in the atmosphere, 4 00:00:21,654 --> 00:00:26,456 a rate of about 8 gigatons per year. And also, we are 5 00:00:26,456 --> 00:00:31,673 cutting down trees on land, which results in a flux 6 00:00:31,673 --> 00:00:37,548 of CO2 to the atmosphere of about another 2 gigatons a year 8 00:00:37,548 --> 00:00:41,782 The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is going up. 9 00:00:41,782 --> 00:00:45,210 But it's actually not going up as quickly as it 10 00:00:45,210 --> 00:00:48,040 should be, given how much carbon we're putting into it. 11 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,310 It's only going up at about four or five gigatons per year. 12 00:00:51,310 --> 00:00:53,130 There's a whole bunch of carbon that we're 13 00:00:53,130 --> 00:00:55,520 putting in the atmosphere, which is not showing up. 14 00:00:55,520 --> 00:01:00,930 It's going away into some combination of the land and the ocean. 15 00:01:02,050 --> 00:01:04,570 The time scale for solid earth 16 00:01:04,570 --> 00:01:06,920 to take up carbon is very long. 17 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,020 That's not really helping us that much, presumably. 18 00:01:10,020 --> 00:01:12,870 It's hard to measure how much carbon 19 00:01:12,870 --> 00:01:18,380 is going in to the land, because the land is so heterogeneous. 20 00:01:18,380 --> 00:01:21,308 One tract of forest is very different from another. 21 00:01:21,308 --> 00:01:24,230 And to know exactly how much carbon is being 22 00:01:24,230 --> 00:01:26,850 absorbed, is a very difficult measurement to make. 23 00:01:26,850 --> 00:01:30,248 Actually, interestingly they can measure the carbon uptake 24 00:01:30,248 --> 00:01:33,205 in the ocean much more easily, much more precisely. 26 00:01:34,090 --> 00:01:39,915 In the early days of thinking about this, back in the 27 00:01:39,915 --> 00:01:46,310 1950s and before, people basically figured that the ocean would control the 28 00:01:46,310 --> 00:01:50,190 atmospheric CO2 concentration and that we wouldn't really be able to change 29 00:01:50,190 --> 00:01:55,490 atmospheric CO2, because the ocean, after all, has 70% of the earth's surface. 30 00:01:55,490 --> 00:01:59,410 And it's also got a lot more carbon than the atmosphere does. 31 00:01:59,410 --> 00:02:04,040 About 40 times more, and so it's a really heavy hitter in the carbon cycle. 32 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,320 The reason why the ocean doesn't just immediately mop up all of our extra CO2 33 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:15,270 has to do mostly with the way that the ocean water circulates, 34 00:02:15,270 --> 00:02:19,090 the way it moves from the surface where it can see the atmosphere 35 00:02:19,090 --> 00:02:22,580 down into the deep which is where most of the ocean water is. 36 00:02:22,580 --> 00:02:24,610 The way the ocean circulates is 37 00:02:24,610 --> 00:02:28,530 that in the high latitudes, in Antarctica and in the 38 00:02:28,530 --> 00:02:32,100 North Atlantic, where it gets very cold, the water at 39 00:02:32,100 --> 00:02:35,070 the surface gets cold enough that it can sink 40 00:02:35,070 --> 00:02:38,160 by the same convection process we were talking about before, 41 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,330 but now upside down because we're cooling it from above. 42 00:02:41,330 --> 00:02:47,450 And so you have this very focused downward flow in very specific locations. 43 00:02:47,450 --> 00:02:50,390 And this is balanced by vague and diffuse 44 00:02:50,390 --> 00:02:56,250 upward velocities every place else, or other parts of the ocean. 45 00:02:56,250 --> 00:03:00,665 The overall time scale for the circulation of the ocean is about a 1000 years. 46 00:03:00,665 --> 00:03:03,629 And that actually limits how quickly the CO2 47 00:03:03,629 --> 00:03:07,370 can equilibrate between the atmosphere and the ocean.