2 00:00:06,840 --> The word Mitigation means to soften or make mild. 4 00:00:13,290 --> 00:00:16,860 The way it's used in the climate change context is 5 00:00:16,860 --> 00:00:22,860 to talk about ways of avoiding emitting CO2 which is the cause of the problem. 6 00:00:24,090 --> 00:00:26,360 And the question of what it would take 7 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,720 to avoid emitting CO2, to mitigate climate change 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:36,110 depends very much on the time frame on which you're asking the question. 9 00:00:36,110 --> 00:00:40,060 In the near term, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 10 00:00:40,060 --> 00:00:44,420 put together a whole report on mitigation. 11 00:00:44,420 --> 00:00:51,190 And they added up what they could see as various amounts of carbon emissions in 12 00:00:51,190 --> 00:00:59,230 gigatons of carbon per year that could be avoided a cost of $100 per ton of CO2. 13 00:00:59,230 --> 00:01:02,200 One issue here is, you have to watch out for, 15 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,420 Is that a ton of carbon, as we've used before, is not the 16 00:01:05,420 --> 00:01:08,660 same as a ton of C02, because of the mass of the oxygen. 17 00:01:08,660 --> 00:01:10,720 Just something to keep in mind. 18 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,752 But anyway, the relative numbers are these. 19 00:01:13,752 --> 00:01:17,980 for changes in energy supply at this cost, 20 00:01:17,980 --> 00:01:22,580 they came up without about 1 gigaton of carbon per year that could be saved. 21 00:01:22,580 --> 00:01:26,380 Transportation, another gigaton per year. 22 00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:28,490 The built environment, another gigaton. 23 00:01:28,490 --> 00:01:32,250 Industry, another gigaton, and then agriculture, 1 more. 24 00:01:32,250 --> 00:01:35,480 There're a couple of interesting things to notice here. 25 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:40,780 Most of this comes from efficiency, rather than new energy sources. 26 00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:43,745 Most of the low-hanging fruit today, can be 27 00:01:43,745 --> 00:01:48,440 gained by using our energy more efficiently, 28 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,620 because it's never been all that much of a priority in the past. 29 00:01:51,620 --> 00:01:52,994 There's a lot of low-hanging fruit 31 00:01:54,750 --> 00:01:57,730 in the built environment, the architectural sector. 32 00:01:57,730 --> 00:02:01,620 There's a lot of carbon emissions that could be accomplished at 33 00:02:01,620 --> 00:02:05,440 a net negative cost, that means it would pay for itself. 34 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,990 You put in more insulation when you build the building, and you have to 35 00:02:08,990 --> 00:02:12,870 pay for that, but then you save money in the long term heating the building. 36 00:02:12,870 --> 00:02:16,600 And the agricultural sector, mostly what they're talking about is 37 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,940 changes in agricultural practices that would allow carbon to build 38 00:02:19,940 --> 00:02:22,325 up in the soil, such as no-till agriculture 40 00:02:23,930 --> 00:02:31,450 There's no single magic bullet, 41 00:02:31,450 --> 00:02:37,530 no single change, that can accomplish the mitigation of climate change. 42 00:02:37,530 --> 00:02:43,040 What they talk about is a portfolio of solutions 43 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,140 is how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts it. 44 00:02:46,140 --> 00:02:49,270 Or as Pacala and Socolow, Science 305: 968-972 (2004) put it, 45 00:02:49,270 --> 00:02:55,524 they call these wedges. Imagine that here is business as usual 47 00:02:58,850 --> 00:03:03,860 A rate of CO2 emission through time that's growing with time, and here let's call 48 00:03:03,860 --> 00:03:09,300 this stabilization, if we could keep the CO2 emissions from growing 49 00:03:09,300 --> 00:03:11,250 for a while, that would be a good thing. 50 00:03:11,250 --> 00:03:14,770 There's no single change in our practices or 51 00:03:14,770 --> 00:03:17,560 lifestyles, that could get you from here to here. 52 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,170 But, you can divide this up into smaller pieces. 53 00:03:21,170 --> 00:03:23,220 Each one of which they call a wedge. 54 00:03:23,220 --> 00:03:27,650 Defined as ramping up from zero today to a saving of 55 00:03:27,650 --> 00:03:30,440 about a gigaton of carbon per year by the year 2050. 56 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:34,745 And the cool thing about this is that there are many 58 00:03:35,730 --> 00:03:41,160 wedges available with currently available technology. 59 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:45,250 If our automobiles got 60 miles a gallon 60 00:03:45,250 --> 00:03:47,840 instead of 30, and assuming that by the year 61 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,050 2050 there will be about 3 times as many 62 00:03:50,050 --> 00:03:53,590 automobiles as there are today, that would be a wedge. 63 00:03:53,590 --> 00:03:56,860 Traditional windmills could scale up to be a wedge. 64 00:03:56,860 --> 00:04:01,080 Nuclear power could be a wedge. Carbon capture and sequestration. 65 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:02,994 Actually, this paper came up with 66 00:04:02,994 --> 00:04:06,504 15 wedges with currently available technology. 67 00:04:06,504 --> 00:04:09,744 and concluded that we would only need implement 68 00:04:09,744 --> 00:04:13,740 seven of those to begin to stabilize CO2 emissions