Submission 193 from Anon (session_user_id: 863c2136006d8ab689c787a20a3b7069b1e52184)

Copy the URL from your study, from the page with the stations selected.
Write your report here.  
Since weather is experienced at a local level, my original plan was to select only the meteorological stations located in the state where I reside and to compare the data and model results with my perceptions of weather changes from having lived in this area for over 50 years.  But while selecting the 18 stations in WV, I noticed four stations (22%) with negative temperature trends (see second image below).  This intrigued me, so I attempted to find out what might be unique about these locations and discovered that each was located along the Ohio River.  I then searched for other stations within the United States that had negative trends to see if a more general pattern could be discerned.  I was able to locate several stations across the country with negative trends and have provided the URL for this set of stations.  No obvious correlations were seen for these negatively trending stations relative to vegetation, elevation, or latitude.

Since a significant number of negative stations are available I decided to combine them and see how the various models would deal with this contrary data set.  The normalized, composite trend for this data set indicates a -0.07 C/decade temperature drop in the default 1950 to 2013 time frame.  As expected, most of the climate models made positive trend predictions and did not provide a good result relative to the negative composite data.  But, it was interesting to discover that several of the AR5 models predicted negative temperature trends with the Historical Natural scenario.  The attached image shows a screen shot of the Climate Time Series Browser with these negative trend predictions.  One model even predicted a negative trend with the Historical model scenario.  The prediction for the GISS-E2-H model in this scenario was -0.0015 C/decade.  It would be interesting to understand more details on the specific models to gain insight into how they make predictions for such an unusual data set

There is likely no wide significance to any of these findings.  Looking at this unusual data set was helpful in increasing my understanding of how the climate browser application functioned.  It was also interesting to consider how biased selection of weather stations might impact the model results and potential conclusions on temperature trends.

Image of negatively trending US meteorological stations and negative model predictions.


Image of WV meteorological stations with negatively trending sites (blue and green) located along the Ohio River.

Project Title

Looking for Negative Results
What impact might negative trends in historical meteorological data indicate about global warming and the AR5 models?