Submission 144 from Anon (session_user_id: 0dba225813b04c0fe36f34b1f6106e89d5923b42)

Project Title
Temperature Change in the Mediterranean Basin
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The behavior of the temperature change in the Mediterranean Basin is examined here. The main reason for examining this area is that I live here. The Mediterranean basin is affected by climate change and that is obvious to people living there. Southern areas are becoming more dry, while in northern Mediterranean areas precipitation is increasing. Southern areas already face lack if water problems, while northern areas suffer from floods. Thus, it interesting to examine the meteorological records of such a large and diverse area, model and quantify the changes in temperature. The searching criteria for the stations to be included in the study were mainly geographical. Stations from 14 different countries were selected (Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta, Albania, Montenegro, Croatia, France, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt) to be close enough also to the sea, distributed geographically as uniform as possible and with time series long enough to give a meaningful trend (to include data between 1900 – 1950 and also up to near-present). A set of 165 stations was finally selected for this study. 

All stations presented positive temperature trend (warming) between 1950-2013, from 0.01 (in Barcelona, Spain) to 0.40 C/decade (in Jendouba, Tunisia and Souda, Greece) with an overall trend of 0.20 C/decade. Simulation with all available AR5 models were run both for the Historical Scenario, which includes human climate forcing and the Natural Historical Scenario, with natural climate forcing only. In total, there is agreement between the different models with bcc-csm1-1 and IPSL-CM5A presenting relatively high values (0.26 and 0.25 respectively). An average temperature trend of about 0.1 C/decade was found for all models for the period 1950 – 2013 with human climate forcing, while the respective average with only natural climate forcing is about 0.01 C/decade. Therefore, locally for the case of the Mediterranean Basin, the Smoking Gun conclusion is the same. We have strong indication that the small increase in temperature appears to be amplified by a factor of 10 by human activity. Models’ findings are also in agreement with the stations data composite.


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