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Publications (updated April 2023)
Submitted
T. A. Shaw and O. Miyawaki, 2023: Fast jet stream winds get faster under climate change, submitted.
Miyawaki, O., T. A. Shaw and M. Jansen, 2023: The emergence of a new wintertime Arctic energy balance regime, submitted.
2023
Kang, J., T. A. Shaw and L. Sun, 2023: Arctic Sea Ice Loss Weakens Northern Hemisphere Summertime Storminess but Not Until the Late 21st Century, Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted.
2022
Shaw, T. A., O. Miyawaki, and A. Donohoe, 2022: Stormier Southern Hemisphere induced by topography and ocean circulation, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 10.1073/pnas.2123512119.
Press coverage: Washington Post, WBEZ, UChicago News, Carbon Brief Guest PostShaw, T. A. and Z. Smith, 2022: The midlatitude response to polar sea ice loss: Idealized slab-ocean aquaplanet experiments with thermodynamic sea ice, J. Climate., 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0508.1.
2021
Miyawaki, O., T. A. Shaw and M. F. Jansen, 2021: Quantifying energy balance regimes in the modern climate, their link to lapse rate regimes, and their response to warming, J. Climate., 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0440.1.
2020
Fan, B., Z. Tan, T. A. Shaw and E. S. Kite, 2020: Reducing Surface Wetness Leads to Tropical Hydrological Cycle Regime Transition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL090746.
Shaw, T. A. and R. J. Graham, 2020: Hydrological cycle changes explain weak Snowball Earth storm track despite increased surface baroclinicity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL089866.
Miyawaki, O., Z. Tan, T. A. Shaw and M. F. Jansen, 2020: Quantifying the deviation of the tropical upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming from a moist adiabat, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL089136.
Tan, Z. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Quantifying the impact of wind and surface humidity induced surface heat exchange on the circulation shift in response to increased CO2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL088053.
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Dynamics of Anomalous Stratospheric Eddy Heat Flux Events in an Idealized Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0231.1.
Barpanda, P. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Surface fluxes modulate the seasonality of zonal-mean storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0139.1.
Mooring, T. A. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Atmospheric diffusivity as a framework for the zonally-symmetric midlatitude circulation response to climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2019JD031206.
2019
Graham, R. J., T. A. Shaw and D. S. Abbot, 2019: The snowball stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2019JD031361.
Shaw, T. A., 2019: Mechanisms of future predicted changes in the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation, Current Climate Change Reports, 10.1007/s40641-019-00145-8.
Tan, Z., T. A. Shaw, and O. Lachmy, 2019: The sensitivity of the jet stream response to climate change to radiative assumptions, J. Advan. Mod. Earth Sys., 10.1029/2018MS001492.
2018
Shaw, T. A. and Z. Tan, 2018: Testing latitudinally-dependent explanations of the circulation response to increased CO2 using aquaplanet models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2018GL078974.
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and T. A. Shaw, 2018: Dynamics of extreme stratospheric negative heat flux events in an idealized model, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3521-3540.
Lachmy, O. and T. A. Shaw, 2018: Connecting the energy and momentum flux response to climate change using the Eliassen-Palm relation, J. Climate, 31, 7401-7416.
Shaw, T. A., P. Barpanda and A. Donohoe, 2018: A moist static energy framework for zonal-mean storm track intensity, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 1979-1994.
2017
Barpanda, P. and T. A. Shaw , 2017: Using the moist static energy budget to understand storm track shifts across a range of timescales, J. Atmos. Sci., 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0022.1.
2016
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2016: Land dominates the regional response to CO2 direct radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2016GL071368.
Shaw, T. A., M. Baldwin, E. A. Barnes, R. Caballero, C. I. Garfinkel, Y-T. Hwang, C. Li, P. A. O'Gorman, G. Riviere, I R. Simpson, and A. Voigt, 2016: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change, Nature Geosc., 10.1038/ngeo2783.
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2016: Understanding the links between subtropical and extratropical circulation responses to climate change using aquaplanet model simulations, J. Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0049.1.
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2016: What can moist thermodynamics tell us about circulation shifts in response to uniform warming?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2016GL068712.
Voigt, A. and T. A. Shaw , 2016: Impact of regional longwave cloud-radiative changes on the extratropical jet stream response to global warming, J. Climate, JCLI-D-16-0140.1.
Wu, Y. and T. A. Shaw , 2016: The Impact of the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation on the Tropopause, J. Climate, JCLI-D-16-0204.1.
England, M. R., T. A. Shaw, and L. M. Polvani, 2016: Troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling in the Southern high latitudes, and its linkage to the Amundsen Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2015JD024254.
2015
Shaw, T. A., A. Voigt, S. Kang and J. Seo, 2015: Response of the intertropical convergence zone to zonally-asymmetric subtropical surface forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2015GL066027.
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2015: Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Nature Geos., 10.1038/ngeo2449. Cover
Simpson, I., R. Seager, M. Ting and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional wind and regional hydroclimate. Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/nclimate2783.
Voigt, A., and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Radiative changes of clouds and water vapor shape circulation response to global warming. Nature Geos., 10.1038/ngeo2345.
Dunn-Sigouin, E., and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Comparing and contrasting extreme stratospheric events, including their coupling to the tropospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2014JD022116.
Simpson, I., R. Seager, T. A. Shaw and M. Ting, 2015: Mediterranean summer climate and the importance of Middle-East topography. J. Climate, 28, 1977-1996.
2014
Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. A. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting and B. Cook, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 20, 7921-7948.
Simpson, I., T. A. Shaw, and R. Seager, 2014: A diagnosis of the seasonally and longitudinally varying mid-latitude circulation response to global warming. J. Atmos. Sci. , 71, 2489–2515.
Shaw, T. A., J. Perlwitz, and O. Weiner, 2014: Troposphere-stratosphere coupling: Links to North Atlantic weather and climate, including their representation in CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2013JD021191.
Seager, R., H. Liu, N. Henderson, I. Simpson, C. Kelley, T. A. Shaw, Y. Kushnir and M. Ting, 2014: Causes of increasing aridification of the Mediterranean region in response to rising greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 27, 4655-4676.
Shaw, T. A., 2014: On the role of planetary-scale waves in the abrupt seasonal transition of the Northern Hemisphere general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1724-1746.
Shaw, T. A., and J. Perlwitz, 2014: On the control of the residual circulation and stratospheric temperatures in the Arctic by planetary wave coupling. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 195-206.
2013
Boos, W. R., and T. A. Shaw, 2013: The effect of moist convection on the tropospheric response to tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric torques. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 4089-4111.
Shaw, T. A., and T. P. Lane, 2013: Toward an understanding of vertical momentum transports in cloud system resolving model simulations of multiscale tropical convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 3231-3247.
Shaw, T. A., and J. Perlwitz, 2013: The life cycle of Northern Hemisphere downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. J. Climate, 26, 1745-1763.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., et al. (27 co-authors including T. A. Shaw), 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 10.1002/jgrd.50125.
Laliberte, F., T. A. Shaw, and O. Pauluis, 2013: A theory for the lower tropospheric structure of the moist isentropic circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 843-854.
Wu, Y., R. Seager, T. A. Shaw, M. Ting, N. Naik, 2013: Atmospheric circulation response to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide Part II: Atmospheric transient adjustment and its dynamics. J. Climate, 26, 918-935.
2012
Gerber, E. P., A. Butler, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, J. Perlwitz, L. M. Polvani, F. Sassi, A. A. Scaife, T. A. Shaw, S.-W. Son, and S. Watanabe, 2012: Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric variability on the earth system. 10.1175/BAMS-d-11-00145.1, 845-859.
Shaw, T. A., and O. Pauluis, 2012: Tropical and subtropical meridional latent heat transports by disturbances to the zonal mean and their role in the general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69,1872-1889.
Garfinkel C. I., T. A. Shaw, D. L. Hartmann and D. W. Waugh, 2012: Does the Holton-Tan mechanism explain how the quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the Arctic polar vortex?. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 1713-1733.
Laliberte, F., T. A. Shaw, and O. Pauluis, 2012: Moist recirculation and water vapor transport on dry isentropes. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 875-890.
Wu, Y., R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik, T. A. Shaw, 2012: Atmospheric circulation response to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide Part I: Model experiments and transient thermal response in the troposphere. J. Climate, 25, 2862-2879.
Shaw, T. A., and W. R. Boos, 2012: The tropospheric response to tropical and subtropical zonally-asymmetric torques: Analytical and idealized numerical model results. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 214-234.
2011
Hardiman, S. C., N. Butchart, A. J. Charlton-Perez, T. A. Shaw, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, M. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. R. Garcia, M. Michou, S. Pawson, E. Rozanov and K. Shiabata, 2011: Improved predictability of the troposphere NAO using stratosphere final warmings. J. Geophys. Res., 116, 10.1029/2011JD015914.
Shaw, T. A. and E. Becker, 2011: Comments on "A spectral parameterization of drag, eddy diffusion and wave heating for a three dimensional flow induced by breaking gravity waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2465-2469.
Pauluis, O., T. A. Shaw, and F. Laliberte, 2011: A statistical generalization of the transformed Eulerian-mean circulation for an arbitrary vertical coordinate system. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1766-1783.
Shaw, T. A., J. Perlwitz, N. Harnik, P. A. Newman and S. Pawson, 2011: The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling in the southern hemisphere. J. Climate, 24, 4210-4229.
Harnik, N., J. Perlwitz, and T. A. Shaw, 2011: Observed decadal changes in downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the southern hemisphere. J. Climate, 24, 4558-4569.
2010
Shaw, T. A., J. Perlwitz, and N. Harnik, 2010: Downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere: The importance of meridional wave guiding and comparison with zonal-mean coupling. J. Climate, 23, 6365-6381.
Shaw, T. A. and J. Perlwitz, 2010: The impact of stratospheric model configuration on planetary scale waves in northern hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 23, 3369-3389.
M. J. Alexander, et al. (15 co-authors including T. A. Shaw), 2010: Recent developments in gravity wave effects in climate models and the global distribution of gravity wave momentum flux from observations and models. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1103-1124.
2009
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2009: A theoretical framework for energy and momentum consistency in subgrid-scale parameterization in climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3095-3114.
Shaw, T. A., M. Sigmond, T. G. Shepherd and J. F. Scinocca, 2009: Sensitivity of simulated climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization. J. Climate, 22, 2726-2742.
2008
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2008: Raising the roof. Nature Geoscience, 1, 12-13.
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2008: Wave-activity conservation laws for the three-dimensional anelastic and Boussinesq equations with a horizontally homogeneous background flow. J. Fluid Mech., 594, 493-506.
2007
Shaw, T. A., J.-L. Thiffeault and C. R. Doering, 2007: Stirring up trouble: Multi-scale mixing measures for steady scalar sources. Physica D, 231, 143-164.
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2007: Angular momentum conservation and gravity wave drag parameterization: Implications for climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 190-203.
2004
Shepherd, T. G. and T. A. Shaw, 2004: The angular momentum constraint on climate sensitivity and downward influence in the middle atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2899-2908.