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Publications (updated September 2024)
Submitted
Liang, Y.-C., O. Miyawaki, T. A. Shaw, I. Mitevski, L. M. Polvani, and Y.-T. Hwang, 2024: Linking Radiative-Advective Equilibrium Regime Transition to Arctic Amplification, submitted.
Kang, J., T. A. Shaw, S. M. Kang, I. R. Simpson and Y. Yu, 2024: Revisiting the reanalysis-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends, submitted.
Kang, J., T. A. Shaw, L. Sun, 2024: Anthropogenic aerosols have significantly weakened the regional summertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the satellite era, submitted.
Shaw, T. A., J. M. Arblaster, T. Birner, A. H. Butler, D. I. V. Domeisen, C. I. Garfinkel, H. Garny, K. M. Grise and A. Karpechko, 2024: Detected climate change signals in atmospheric circulation: Mechanisms, puzzles and opportunities, submitted.
2024
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., L. Alexander, A. King, S. Kew, S. Philip, C. Barnes, D. Maraun, R. Stuart-Smith, A. Jezequel, E. Bevacqua, S. Burgess, E. M. Fischer, G. Hegerl, J. Kimutai, G. Koren, K. Lawal, S-K. Min, M. New, R. Odoulami, C. M. Patricola, I. Pinto, A. Ribes, T. A. Shaw, W. Thiery, B. Trewin, R. Vautard, M. Wehner, and J. Zscheischler, 2024: Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts, Frontiers Climate, 10.3389/fclim.2024.1455023.
Shaw, T. A., P. A. Arias, M. Collins, D. Coumou, A. Diedhiou, C. I. Garfinkel, S. Jain, M. K. Roxy, M. Kretschmer, L. R. Leung, S. Narsey, O. Martius, R. Seager, T. G. Shepherd, A. A. Sorensson, T. Stephenson, M. Taylor, L. Wang, 2024: Regional Climate Change: Consensus, discrepancies and ways forward, Frontiers Climate, 10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634.
2023
Shaw, T. A. and O. Miyawaki, 2023: Fast jet stream winds get faster under climate change, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01884-1.
Kang, J., T. A. Shaw and L. Sun, 2023: Arctic Sea Ice Loss Weakens Northern Hemisphere Summertime Circulation but Not Until the Late 21st Century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2022GL102301.
Miyawaki, O., T. A. Shaw and M. Jansen, 2023: The emergence of a new wintertime Arctic energy balance regime, Environmental Research Climate, 10.1088/2752-5295/aced63.
2022
Shaw, T. A., O. Miyawaki, and A. Donohoe, 2022: Stormier Southern Hemisphere induced by topography and ocean circulation, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 10.1073/pnas.2123512119.
Press coverage: Washington Post, WBEZ, UChicago News, Carbon Brief Guest PostShaw, T. A. and Z. Smith, 2022: The midlatitude response to polar sea ice loss: Idealized slab-ocean aquaplanet experiments with thermodynamic sea ice, J. Climate., 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0508.1.
2021
Miyawaki, O., T. A. Shaw and M. F. Jansen, 2021: Quantifying energy balance regimes in the modern climate, their link to lapse rate regimes, and their response to warming, J. Climate., 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0440.1.
2020
Fan, B., Z. Tan, T. A. Shaw and E. S. Kite, 2020: Reducing Surface Wetness Leads to Tropical Hydrological Cycle Regime Transition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL090746.
Shaw, T. A. and R. J. Graham, 2020: Hydrological cycle changes explain weak Snowball Earth storm track despite increased surface baroclinicity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL089866.
Miyawaki, O., Z. Tan, T. A. Shaw and M. F. Jansen, 2020: Quantifying the deviation of the tropical upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming from a moist adiabat, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL089136.
Tan, Z. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Quantifying the impact of wind and surface humidity induced surface heat exchange on the circulation shift in response to increased CO2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2020GL088053.
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Dynamics of Anomalous Stratospheric Eddy Heat Flux Events in an Idealized Model, J. Atmos. Sci., 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0231.1.
Barpanda, P. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Surface fluxes modulate the seasonality of zonal-mean storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0139.1.
Mooring, T. A. and T. A. Shaw, 2020: Atmospheric diffusivity as a framework for the zonally-symmetric midlatitude circulation response to climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2019JD031206.
2019
Graham, R. J., T. A. Shaw and D. S. Abbot, 2019: The snowball stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2019JD031361.
Shaw, T. A., 2019: Mechanisms of future predicted changes in the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation, Current Climate Change Reports, 10.1007/s40641-019-00145-8.
Tan, Z., T. A. Shaw, and O. Lachmy, 2019: The sensitivity of the jet stream response to climate change to radiative assumptions, J. Advan. Mod. Earth Sys., 10.1029/2018MS001492.
2018
Shaw, T. A. and Z. Tan, 2018: Testing latitudinally-dependent explanations of the circulation response to increased CO2 using aquaplanet models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2018GL078974.
Dunn-Sigouin, E. and T. A. Shaw, 2018: Dynamics of extreme stratospheric negative heat flux events in an idealized model, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 3521-3540.
Lachmy, O. and T. A. Shaw, 2018: Connecting the energy and momentum flux response to climate change using the Eliassen-Palm relation, J. Climate, 31, 7401-7416.
Shaw, T. A., P. Barpanda and A. Donohoe, 2018: A moist static energy framework for zonal-mean storm track intensity, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 1979-1994.
2017
Barpanda, P. and T. A. Shaw , 2017: Using the moist static energy budget to understand storm track shifts across a range of timescales, J. Atmos. Sci., 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0022.1.
2016
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2016: Land dominates the regional response to CO2 direct radiative forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2016GL071368.
Shaw, T. A., M. Baldwin, E. A. Barnes, R. Caballero, C. I. Garfinkel, Y-T. Hwang, C. Li, P. A. O'Gorman, G. Riviere, I R. Simpson, and A. Voigt, 2016: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change, Nature Geosc., 10.1038/ngeo2783.
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2016: Understanding the links between subtropical and extratropical circulation responses to climate change using aquaplanet model simulations, J. Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0049.1.
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2016: What can moist thermodynamics tell us about circulation shifts in response to uniform warming?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2016GL068712.
Voigt, A. and T. A. Shaw , 2016: Impact of regional longwave cloud-radiative changes on the extratropical jet stream response to global warming, J. Climate, JCLI-D-16-0140.1.
Wu, Y. and T. A. Shaw , 2016: The Impact of the Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation on the Tropopause, J. Climate, JCLI-D-16-0204.1.
England, M. R., T. A. Shaw, and L. M. Polvani, 2016: Troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling in the Southern high latitudes, and its linkage to the Amundsen Sea, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2015JD024254.
2015
Shaw, T. A., A. Voigt, S. Kang and J. Seo, 2015: Response of the intertropical convergence zone to zonally-asymmetric subtropical surface forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2015GL066027.
Shaw, T. A. and A. Voigt, 2015: Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Nature Geos., 10.1038/ngeo2449. Cover
Simpson, I., R. Seager, M. Ting and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional wind and regional hydroclimate. Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/nclimate2783.
Voigt, A., and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Radiative changes of clouds and water vapor shape circulation response to global warming. Nature Geos., 10.1038/ngeo2345.
Dunn-Sigouin, E., and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Comparing and contrasting extreme stratospheric events, including their coupling to the tropospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2014JD022116.
Simpson, I., R. Seager, T. A. Shaw and M. Ting, 2015: Mediterranean summer climate and the importance of Middle-East topography. J. Climate, 28, 1977-1996.
2014
Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. A. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting and B. Cook, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 20, 7921-7948.
Simpson, I., T. A. Shaw, and R. Seager, 2014: A diagnosis of the seasonally and longitudinally varying mid-latitude circulation response to global warming. J. Atmos. Sci. , 71, 2489–2515.
Shaw, T. A., J. Perlwitz, and O. Weiner, 2014: Troposphere-stratosphere coupling: Links to North Atlantic weather and climate, including their representation in CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2013JD021191.
Seager, R., H. Liu, N. Henderson, I. Simpson, C. Kelley, T. A. Shaw, Y. Kushnir and M. Ting, 2014: Causes of increasing aridification of the Mediterranean region in response to rising greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 27, 4655-4676.
Shaw, T. A., 2014: On the role of planetary-scale waves in the abrupt seasonal transition of the Northern Hemisphere general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 1724-1746.
Shaw, T. A., and J. Perlwitz, 2014: On the control of the residual circulation and stratospheric temperatures in the Arctic by planetary wave coupling. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 195-206.
2013
Boos, W. R., and T. A. Shaw, 2013: The effect of moist convection on the tropospheric response to tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric torques. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 4089-4111.
Shaw, T. A., and T. P. Lane, 2013: Toward an understanding of vertical momentum transports in cloud system resolving model simulations of multiscale tropical convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 3231-3247.
Shaw, T. A., and J. Perlwitz, 2013: The life cycle of Northern Hemisphere downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. J. Climate, 26, 1745-1763.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., et al. (27 co-authors including T. A. Shaw), 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 10.1002/jgrd.50125.
Laliberte, F., T. A. Shaw, and O. Pauluis, 2013: A theory for the lower tropospheric structure of the moist isentropic circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 843-854.
Wu, Y., R. Seager, T. A. Shaw, M. Ting, N. Naik, 2013: Atmospheric circulation response to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide Part II: Atmospheric transient adjustment and its dynamics. J. Climate, 26, 918-935.
2012
Gerber, E. P., A. Butler, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, J. Perlwitz, L. M. Polvani, F. Sassi, A. A. Scaife, T. A. Shaw, S.-W. Son, and S. Watanabe, 2012: Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric variability on the earth system. 10.1175/BAMS-d-11-00145.1, 845-859.
Shaw, T. A., and O. Pauluis, 2012: Tropical and subtropical meridional latent heat transports by disturbances to the zonal mean and their role in the general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69,1872-1889.
Garfinkel C. I., T. A. Shaw, D. L. Hartmann and D. W. Waugh, 2012: Does the Holton-Tan mechanism explain how the quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the Arctic polar vortex?. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 1713-1733.
Laliberte, F., T. A. Shaw, and O. Pauluis, 2012: Moist recirculation and water vapor transport on dry isentropes. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 875-890.
Wu, Y., R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik, T. A. Shaw, 2012: Atmospheric circulation response to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide Part I: Model experiments and transient thermal response in the troposphere. J. Climate, 25, 2862-2879.
Shaw, T. A., and W. R. Boos, 2012: The tropospheric response to tropical and subtropical zonally-asymmetric torques: Analytical and idealized numerical model results. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 214-234.
2011
Hardiman, S. C., N. Butchart, A. J. Charlton-Perez, T. A. Shaw, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, M. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. R. Garcia, M. Michou, S. Pawson, E. Rozanov and K. Shiabata, 2011: Improved predictability of the troposphere NAO using stratosphere final warmings. J. Geophys. Res., 116, 10.1029/2011JD015914.
Shaw, T. A. and E. Becker, 2011: Comments on "A spectral parameterization of drag, eddy diffusion and wave heating for a three dimensional flow induced by breaking gravity waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2465-2469.
Pauluis, O., T. A. Shaw, and F. Laliberte, 2011: A statistical generalization of the transformed Eulerian-mean circulation for an arbitrary vertical coordinate system. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1766-1783.
Shaw, T. A., J. Perlwitz, N. Harnik, P. A. Newman and S. Pawson, 2011: The impact of stratospheric ozone changes on downward wave coupling in the southern hemisphere. J. Climate, 24, 4210-4229.
Harnik, N., J. Perlwitz, and T. A. Shaw, 2011: Observed decadal changes in downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in the southern hemisphere. J. Climate, 24, 4558-4569.
2010
Shaw, T. A., J. Perlwitz, and N. Harnik, 2010: Downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere: The importance of meridional wave guiding and comparison with zonal-mean coupling. J. Climate, 23, 6365-6381.
Shaw, T. A. and J. Perlwitz, 2010: The impact of stratospheric model configuration on planetary scale waves in northern hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 23, 3369-3389.
M. J. Alexander, et al. (15 co-authors including T. A. Shaw), 2010: Recent developments in gravity wave effects in climate models and the global distribution of gravity wave momentum flux from observations and models. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1103-1124.
2009
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2009: A theoretical framework for energy and momentum consistency in subgrid-scale parameterization in climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3095-3114.
Shaw, T. A., M. Sigmond, T. G. Shepherd and J. F. Scinocca, 2009: Sensitivity of simulated climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization. J. Climate, 22, 2726-2742.
2008
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2008: Raising the roof. Nature Geoscience, 1, 12-13.
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2008: Wave-activity conservation laws for the three-dimensional anelastic and Boussinesq equations with a horizontally homogeneous background flow. J. Fluid Mech., 594, 493-506.
2007
Shaw, T. A., J.-L. Thiffeault and C. R. Doering, 2007: Stirring up trouble: Multi-scale mixing measures for steady scalar sources. Physica D, 231, 143-164.
Shaw, T. A. and T. G. Shepherd, 2007: Angular momentum conservation and gravity wave drag parameterization: Implications for climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 190-203.
2004
Shepherd, T. G. and T. A. Shaw, 2004: The angular momentum constraint on climate sensitivity and downward influence in the middle atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2899-2908.